SpaceX wants 40 billion for Nvidia chips | Future Intelligence #30

Amid fluctuating sentiment around semiconductors, AI infrastructure reshuffled this week. SpaceX is negotiating a package of about $40 billion for NVDA accelerators and is buying a nationwide 800 MHz band for roughly $8 billion. Computing capacity and spectrum are thus being taken by a company that is not a hyperscaler. Waymo borrowed for the first time in its history, a $5 billion loan; GOOGL's robotaxi division is financing itself like infrastructure, not like an experiment. And Google locked in 3,590 MW with CEG in the PJM network - chips are no longer the limiting factor for AI expansion; electricity is becoming the limit.

Future Intelligence is an exclusive analytical report published once a week and available only to Bulios Black members. Members receive it automatically every Sunday morning by email - in full length, including specific scenarios and market implications. Permanent access to the report is obtained through Bulios Black membership.

Apple and LG: seven devices Apple designed but will not manufacture

Bloomberg, citing filings with the U.S. FCC and UL Solutions, described on October 6 an unusual arrangement: seven smart home devices that Apple co-developed will carry the LG brand. They are a wired video doorbell, a thermostat, a temperature sensor, a deadbolt smart lock, and three cameras - indoor, outdoor, and with a floodlight.

The name Apple does not appear anywhere in the documents, and LG asked the FCC to keep details confidential. The next day, the first visualizations of the lock, thermostat, and sensor emerged from the filings; the lock's keypad flips open by rotation, and an attached pin limits movement so it does not hit the wall.

Why Apple is letting go of hardware

The division of labor is unprecedented for Apple: design and integration remain in Cupertino, but manufacturing, branding, and customer support are taken over by LG. Apple thus buys category breadth without the costs of lock and camera certifications, service, and returns - and without the risk that low-margin accessories dilute the hardware division's margin.

The price is that the category will not be counted in Apple's revenue. The platform pulls the value: according to Bloomberg, it is a formal restart of HomeKit, where monetization occurs through Apple devices, subscriptions, and ecosystem stickiness, not through selling a doorbell.

The axis is hardware planned for October 13 - a home hub, a new Apple TV 4K, and HomePod mini. The hub is to have a six-inch square display and an A18 chip or newer, an operating system referred to as homeOS, and an interface that changes the size of elements based on the user's distance. LG accessories will arrive several months later.

For a layperson, one limitation is essential: the hub is not supposed to offer a third-party app store at launch. Calendar, Music, Podcasts, Reminders, Notes, and a new Siri app with conversation history will be preinstalled. The entire concept stands or falls on how well the new Siri handles voice control of the home.

The market Apple is entering

The U.S. smart home market is estimated to be worth $47.5 to $50.2 billion in 2026 with penetration of about 57% of households; Parks Associates reports that 45% of U.S. internet households own smart devices. Growth is no longer driven by first-time purchases, but by adding devices to an existing ecosystem.

The distribution of power is uncomfortable for Apple. Estimates give Amazon about 28% of the market, Google 24%, and Apple 12%; in U.S. smart speakers, Echo holds 65-67%, Nest around 27%, and Apple 15%. Amazon also completed the nationwide rollout of Alexa+ in the U.S. on February 4, 2026.

The Matter standard has meanwhile erased part of the technical advantage: there are over 700 certified products and about a thousand Thread devices, roughly ten times the number in 2024. When devices talk across brands, competition shifts from the protocol to the assistant and hub - exactly where Apple has lagged for years.

Apple, LG, and the price of the ecosystem

The timing is brutal. According to Nikkei Asia, Apple in October cut component orders for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max by 15 to 20%, because pricier memory pushed prices up - base models start at $1,199 and $1,299 respectively - and demand softened. It has been more cautious since early September, according to sources.

The home will not offset this shortfall in the foreseeable future: the category will not be reflected directly in Apple's revenue, and the volumes of doorbells and thermostats are orders of magnitude different from the iPhone. The investment question for Apple stock is therefore not how many locks will be sold, but whether the new Siri will sustain a premium valuation in a year when the hardware cycle is slowing.

For LG, the deal confirms its shift toward custom B2B business. Preliminary third-quarter figures announced on October 7 showed revenue growth of 8.9% and operating profit growth of 13.5%, while the home appliance division's margin approached 10% in the second quarter. The order from Apple adds volume without the cost of its own platform.

What to watch on October 13: the hub's price, the delivery schedule for LG accessories, and above all how many of Siri's promised features will actually work from day one. A delay in the assistant's capabilities would turn the entire restart into another expensive version of HomePod - a product that did not expand the ecosystem.

Qualcomm pays Huawei: LogicFolding heads West

Qualcomm and Huawei announced on October 5 a multi-year cross-license for patents in 5G, computing, AI, and networking technologies. It is the first licensing agreement between the two companies covering 5G, and Qualcomm is additionally buying part of Huawei's U.S. patents in compute, AI, and networking. The portfolio includes patents around LogicFolding technology.